FUCK Magic - Game Theory #1 - "Pack 9"

This weekend at my local draft I received several inquiries as to how to avoid an unwanted third color and how to establish a higher consistency in terms of deck quality. I found it was difficult to explain the complex economics involved, yet alone the psychological elements involved in terms of the players at the table.

So rather than expound upon the information in such a way that it is overwhelming, I hope to demonstrate  simple and more easily applicable models to develop a foundation for further understanding of Game Theory in terms of magic.

Pack 9

There you are. It's a Friday night at your local shop and you've got a bottle of coke and clean socks on. You left the house ready to take on the world. 

Yet, here you sit balls deep in six colors, and you're not sure how to dig out of your pile. Stay calm. Assuming you're not staring at a stack of  Scornful Egotists, you're right where you want to be.

Let's see how we got here:

Maybe you took that Hero's downfall first pack and followed up with a second pick Grey Merchant, only to get cut off completely from black for the remainder of the pack. Regardless of which colors you've got your hopes behind, it's time for Pack 9 and your preference no longer matters. (sorry)

Why Pack 9?

This is the pack with your most easily read signal, in terms of which color(s) are/is open.
The reason why seems relatively obvious: That the pack has now seen each player, and the leftovers start with you.

What now?

It's Pack 9 and your looking at six un-loved cards. More importantly, you see two playable possibilities still there.

Consider the Implications.

The obvious process is to remember which cards were in your original pack, then choose one of your two playables based upon your most prolific color so far.

And I'm here to tell you that's not enough.

Let's consider some of the factors involved in this choice aside from simple mathematics:

Players at the table

This is a consideration of the personalities at the table. (See Identify #1) 

Look to the left and the right. If there is a Master Splinter present be mindful that they're likely reading the signals correctly and that a late color switch will harm you both. This means you need to consider the second most powerful pick in your first pack (and 8th pack, but that's for another time) and assume that they took that as a strong signal that you're not in a certain color or archetype.

If you can identify a Leonardo, remember their tendency towards control type archetypes. For instance: In Theros draft they may have a tendency towards black/blue. Be mindful of this decision because it may impact whether you're being cut in first or second pack.

If you're choosing between two cards, one of which is a combo-enabler, be on the lookout for a Donatello at your table. It's likely that he's after the same combo pieces you are. But since he's had his eyes on combo since before the draft began, his pile is likely to be much cuter than yours.

Raphael has a tendency towards aggressive-type decks. (A let's get this over with mentality) Rather than consider which colors they may be entering, it is more important to consider which picks may contribute or detract from their potentially aggressive archetype.

And always know where your Michelangelo are. They're more likely than anyone to rare/value draft. If you're hoping to wheel (receive your starting pack again), you had better hope they don't need it for their casual deck. It is good to keep in mind that poor signals can be transmitted from these types of players, but know that the signals generally clear up by second pack. (they've decided their favorite)

Value of Cards

If you've heard the term "2-for-1" or "2-for" in a game, it likely implies that the player is receiving the benefit of two cards. (Using 1 card to destroy or deactivate 2 of the opponents cards.)

It may seem like common sense, but drafting with the thought of these points in mind can be key to know which pick is valuable. This is easy with any card that has a whole value (like 2-for-1), but to reach that next level you need to be able to value cards with harder to determine advantages.

For instance:
I consider Hopeful Eidolon to have a value of 1.25 in my first-pick first-pack. This means that alone I consider it to be a 1.25-for-1. This is because it is at least a 1-for-1 (because one piece of removal is required to kill it) with the potential to be bestowed for extra value, accounting for the extra .25.

Now it's Pick 9 and I see the same Eidolon, it's value has changed depending upon what I've taken. If I am likely to play way, suddenly Eidolon jumps to a full 2-for-1 for me. Its guaranteed playability in my deck in addition to the potential life gained (It's harder to attribute an exact point value for life-gain.)

Flavor of the Week

This is easy if you play at a venue regularly. Find out which cards or archetypes have been popular. For instance, my shop is loaded with Grey Merchant fan-boys and Minotards. Therefore if a recent tournament win is had by one of those types, I know they are likely to be hated by others at the table and I can plan accordingly.

Bias Recognition

Learn your subconscious preferences in any given limited environment. I have a poor tendency to want to play dinosaurs (Big vanilla [usually green] creatures) In order to compensate for a known bias I have, I actively lower the value of these types of cards. (In my mind)

This means that if think Nessian Asp is a 5-for-1, I will lower to a 1.75-for-1 because I know my bias may be interfering.

Anticipated Picks

This requires knowledge of the set you're drafting. If it is Pack 9 and you're deciding between playables, consider each card that would enable or act as a catalyst for your potential pick. If one is heavily enable by only a few rares and possibly an uncommon, you may be better off choosing the card that is mildly enabled by different commons because of their likely who to be present in later packs.

The point of listing some (not all) of the effecting  forces is to express that there is no 'right' or correct pick in an objective sense. As Game Theory infers, because the rules (Player make-up and positioning, as well as previous picks) aren't determined until you're in actually in the situation, there is no way to optimally make a decision until all those rules are in place.

So rather than tell you what the right pick is/was, I hope to convey the importance of considering  all of the impacting factors. Pack 9 is just a great starting point because it is the easiest to read. So start at Pack 9 and then apply those critical considerations during each pack!